OECD’s 2025 Economic Survey of Sweden links rising housing prices to falling fertility. It’s not just cost—it’s the commodification of housing. Young adults choose between mortgage payments and family planning, creating a self-reinforcing economic loop.
Proportion of young adults reporting housing shortage as reason to delay childbearing. Source: OECD 2025 Survey of Sweden.
Housing is treated primarily as a financial asset rather than a social good. That structural shift changes life decisions.
Renters in Sweden’s lowest income quintile spent 41.5% of income on housing in 2019—well above OECD average of 32.5%.
House price-to-income ratios rose sharply since 2015 while total fertility rates declined across OECD.
Higher housing cost burden correlates with lower fertility. Sweden is an outlier on burden, not on direction.
Unaffordability → delayed fertility → smaller future workforce → pressure on public finances & growth → further affordability stress for young cohorts.
Housing costs consume disposable income, raising entry barriers to family formation.
Fertility delay reduces long-run labor supply and dependency ratios worsen.
Fiscal strain limits housing investment, perpetuating scarcity.
Adjust housing cost burden and see modeled impact on fertility delay probability. Illustrative, based on OECD elasticities.
Model: logistic response calibrated to Swedish 4%→18% jump with cost burden increase. For exploratory purposes only.