Swedish inflation dipped slightly in September, falling to 3.1% year-on-year according to the CPIF measure—the metric used by the Riksbank for its inflation target—down from 3.2% in August. The preliminary figure, released Wednesday morning by Statistics Sweden (SCB) as part of its “quick CPI” estimate, came in slightly below market expectations and matched the central bank’s forecast for a gradual cooling of price pressures.
The CPIF (Consumer Price Index with a fixed interest rate) excludes the impact of changes in household mortgage rates, offering a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. Even when energy prices are stripped out—a measure closely monitored by the Riksbank—core inflation declined to 2.7% in September from 2.9% the previous month.
The modest easing supports the Riksbank’s recent policy shift. Earlier in September, the central bank cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75%, signalling that fears of an economic slowdown now outweigh concerns about persistent inflation. The move reflected growing confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back toward the Riksbank’s 2% target.
“This slight dip in inflation reinforces the Riksbank’s view that its rate cut was timely,” said SVT’s economic commentator Alexander Norén. “At least for now, the data suggest that those warning of entrenched inflation may have overstated the risk.”
Final, detailed inflation data—including price movements across individual goods and services—will be published by SCB on October 15.
Understanding Sweden’s Inflation Measures
Statistics Sweden calculates two main inflation indicators: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPIF. While the CPI tracks overall consumer price changes, the CPIF adjusts for shifts in mortgage interest rates, making it the preferred gauge for monetary policy. The Riksbank’s official inflation target is based on the CPIF, aiming for a 2% annual increase over time.
Source: Statistics Sweden (SCB)