Bottom line: Bitcoin has dropped 18 % in eleven days, erasing roughly 370 billion kronor in SEK-denominated value. The coin closed Friday at kr 1 008 900, its lowest since June and a key psychological level for Sweden’s 1.2 million crypto holders.
What just happened
- Peak to trough: From an all-time high of kr 1 191 313 on October 6 to kr 1 008 935 Friday — a 15.3 % fall in under two weeks.
- In dollars: Coinbase data show an intraday low of $103 516, down 18 % from the $126 300 top — the sharpest slide since the FTX collapse in November 2022.
- Volatility: 30-day realized volatility spiked to 72 %, twice that of the Nasdaq, echoing the wild 2021 swings.
Why the market turned
| Catalyst | Channel | Impact |
| US–China trade flare-up | Risk-off macro | Tariff threats on soybeans and rare-earth exports sent investors scrambling for cash. |
| Washington gridlock | Dollar liquidity | A partial US government shutdown now looks likely; T-bill yields are up 18 bp on the week, tightening USD funding. |
| Leverage flush | Crypto-native | BTC perpetual open interest fell 27 % in seven days as longs were liquidated; funding rates flipped negative for the first time since August. |
| ETF outflows | Institutional | US spot-BTC ETFs saw three straight days of redemptions (-$312 m total), ending a five-week inflow streak. |
“This is a controlled de-leveraging, not a structural break,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior analyst at FxPro. “The $102 000 200-day average is the next line in the sand.”
The Swedish angle
- Households: Finansinspektionen’s May 2025 survey found 11 % of Swedish adults hold more than kr 10 000 in crypto. At current prices, the median wallet has lost kr 26 000 in eleven days.
- Tax: Skatteverket’s rules let investors fully deduct crypto capital losses against gains realized before December 31 — expect tax-loss harvesting to pick up.
- Currency: The krona has strengthened 1.4 % against the dollar since October 6 thanks to Riksbank’s hawkish tone, slightly cushioning BTC’s fall in SEK terms.
Technical outlook – can the one-million floor hold?
Key levels to watch:
- $100 000 / ~kr 990 000 – 50-week simple moving average, intact through the 2024–25 bull run.
- $94 000 / ~kr 930 000 – 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement of the March–October rally.
- $87 000 / ~kr 860 000 – 200-day SMA; a daily close below would flip most trend models bearish.
Seasonality is mixed: October has been negative in four of the past seven years, but November and December show median gains of 14 % and 9 %.
What professional investors are doing
- Whales: Addresses holding ≥ 1 000 BTC added 42 000 coins in ten days — the fastest accumulation since April, per Glassnode data via CoinDesk Nordic.
- Funds: Stockholm’s CoinShares logged $38 m in inflows to its SEK-hedged BTC ETP this week — institutions appear to be buying the dip.
- Options: Deribit’s 25-delta risk-reversal turned negative (-7 %) for the first time since August, yet the $120 000 December call remains the biggest open position. Bulls haven’t given up on a year-end rally.
Risks and wildcards
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
| Oct 28–29 | FOMC meeting | 96 % odds of a 25 bp cut; a dovish surprise could weaken USD and boost BTC. |
| Nov 5 | US payrolls | Strong data could lift yields and hit risk assets. |
| Nov 15 | US debt-ceiling deadline | Another shutdown scare would tighten liquidity. |
| Q4 2025 | Spot-ETH ETF ruling | SEC approval could revive broader crypto risk appetite. |
What Nordic boards should note
- Balance sheets: Firms holding BTC reserves — including Kjell & Company and Paradox Interactive — face Q4 mark-to-market losses. Expect auditors to focus on hedge-accounting treatment.
- Counterparty risk: Crypto-loan volumes at Avanza and Nordnet have tripled this year. Falling collateral values raise margin-call pressure.
- ESG compliance: The EU’s MiCA climate-disclosure rules take effect January 1. Bitcoin’s renewable-energy share is estimated at 57 % for Q4, up from 52 % last year — data sustainability teams will need to verify.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s drop toward the one-million-kronor mark looks severe but still fits the pattern of a mid-cycle reset. Leverage is clearing, ETF inflows have paused, and global risk sentiment is shaky. Historically, the 50-week average has been the “last defender” in every post-halving year since 2016. A weekly close below kr 990 000 would open room to kr 860 000, but for now, traders should expect choppy two-way action — not a full-scale breakdown.
Sources: CoinGecko, TradingView, CoinMarketCap, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, XE, Forbes.