The latest U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) marks a deliberate ideological and strategic shift in how the United States views its relationship with Europe. In a significant departure from past approaches, the NSS presents Europe less as a core partner and more as a challenge to be addressed. According to Paasikivi, this represents an “attack” on European trade interests and values, underscoring a U.S. shift that could pressure, divide, and potentially intervene in European domestic affairs to realign Europe with U.S. nationalist and conservative priorities.
The U.S. National Security Strategy: A Break from the Past
At the heart of the new NSS is a revitalization of Trump’s “America First” doctrine. Europe is now described as suffering from economic stagnation, low birth rates, identity erosion due to immigration, and even what the NSS terms “civilizational erasure.” This framing positions Europe’s internal choices—its values, governance, and social policies—as the primary threat to its security, overshadowing external threats from Russia and China.
This stark departure from previous U.S. security documents suggests a shift toward prioritising domestic concerns over Europe’s traditional role in U.S. foreign policy. NATO’s open-ended expansion is questioned, and permanent U.S. security guarantees to European allies are reassessed. The document calls for a rebalancing of U.S. military priorities, emphasizing a return to hemispheric and southern border concerns, reminiscent of a Monroe Doctrine for the modern era.
Why Europeans Perceive It as an “Attack on Our Values”
For European policymakers, especially in Sweden, the NSS strikes at the very heart of European values. The strategy advances a “civilizational” agenda that equates Western values with socially conservative, nationalist, and anti-immigration politics, starkly contrasting the liberal democratic model of the European Union. The NSS critiques EU-style liberalism, diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, and supranational regulation, framing them as symptoms of Europe’s decline.
This ideological divide is most apparent in the NSS’s endorsement of cultivating resistance within allied countries. Washington appears to encourage political forces that align with U.S. conservative priorities, notably on contentious issues like the war in Ukraine, climate policy, and trade regulation. For a country like Sweden, which holds domestic values such as equality and rule of law at the core of its sovereignty, the idea that the U.S. might reshape these norms through political pressure represents a direct challenge to its values and independence.
Economic and Trade Tensions: Industrial Policy and Regulatory Challenges
On the economic front, the NSS signals a more confrontational stance against Europe’s regulatory environment, which the U.S. portrays as stifling innovation and competitiveness, particularly in the fields of green technology, digital regulation, and China-related export controls. The document criticizes Europe’s economic decline, especially Germany’s dependence on the U.S., and suggests that Washington will no longer tolerate what it sees as Europe’s protectionist trade defences.
For export-oriented EU states like Sweden, this creates several risks:
- Increased Trade Disputes: Tensions could rise over issues such as electric vehicles (EVs), green subsidies, and technology standards. The U.S. may increasingly view EU regulations as strategic obstacles rather than compatible frameworks for cooperation.
- Pressure on China Policy: European countries may face pressure to align with U.S. policies on China, including limitations on technology flows and outbound investment, forcing a choice between economic interests and political alignment.
- Security-Trade Linkage: The NSS subtly implies that “good” allies, those that align with U.S. values and policies, particularly on Ukraine, could benefit from preferential trade access, while “problem” allies may face harsher economic treatment, including tariffs and sanctions.
Shifting NATO Dynamics and European Autonomy
The new NSS further intensifies the trend within NATO of the U.S. pushing European allies to “fix themselves” and assume more responsibility for conventional deterrence and the war in Ukraine, while the U.S. focuses on its domestic and Western Hemisphere priorities. This shift redefines NATO’s traditional “values consensus,” which has long been the glue holding the alliance together. The U.S. is now linking alliance solidarity to ideological alignment on social issues such as identity, migration, and governance.
This development could push Europe into one of two scenarios:
- Fragmented NATO: NATO could become increasingly divided, with some European countries aligning more closely with U.S. priorities, while others resist U.S. cultural and political interventions. This could lead to internal fractures that undermine the alliance’s unity.
- European Strategic Autonomy: Alternatively, the growing pressure from the U.S. might accelerate calls for a more autonomous European defence and security policy. EU states could invest more in their own defence capabilities and strengthen regional partnerships, ensuring their security does not depend on U.S. domestic politics or ideological shifts.
For Nordic countries like Sweden, which are already increasing defence spending and joining NATO, the likely response will be a dual approach. These countries will continue to enhance military integration within NATO while hedging their bets by strengthening European defence capabilities. This strategy will ensure that their security is not held hostage to the ideological currents of Washington’s domestic policy.
Conclusion: A Shift in Europe’s Future Relations with the U.S.
The new U.S. National Security Strategy represents a pivotal moment in transatlantic relations. Europe, once a core partner in U.S. foreign policy, is now seen more as a challenge to be addressed through pressure, ideological alignment, and economic pushback. For European countries, especially Sweden, this shift could necessitate a re-evaluation of their role within NATO and the broader international order. Whether Europe will deepen its dependence on the U.S. or chart a more independent course will likely shape the future of transatlantic relations in the years to come.