Despite geopolitical noise and protectionist trends, the United States offers unparalleled opportunities for Swedish industry—if companies are willing to look past federal rhetoric and leverage state-level dynamics.
The geopolitical signal-to-noise ratio regarding the United States has rarely been lower. Between election cycles, tariff threats, and shifting climate policies, the prevailing sentiment among some Nordic boardrooms is caution. However, the data suggests a different reality: the US remains open for business, and for Swedish exporters, retreat is not a viable strategy.
This was the core message delivered by Vlad Månsson, Sweden’s Trade Secretary in the US, during a recent strategic briefing hosted by Business Sweden in Stockholm. Addressing a room of C-suite executives, Månsson urged leaders to decouple their long-term market strategies from the volatility of Washington D.C. headlines.
“The USA is still open for business,” Månsson stated. “But the playbook has changed. Success now requires navigating a complex federal landscape while capitalising on aggressive state-level incentives.”
The Real Drivers Behind Export Shifts
Recent trade data from Business Sweden indicates a nuanced picture. While Swedish service exports to the US have hit record levels, goods exports have contracted by approximately 10 percent over the last three quarters. While tariffs are the convenient scapegoat, a deeper analysis reveals a multi-causal decline.
Currency fluctuation plays a significant role; the strengthening of the Swedish krona against the dollar has eroded price competitiveness. However, the structural shift is more profound. The US has moved toward a bipartisan consensus on industrial policy. Whether under a Democratic or Republican administration, the trend toward “Buy American” provisions and supply chain resilience is entrenched.
“For Swedish business leaders, the takeaway is not to panic, but to analyse relative advantage,” Månsson noted. “While Swedish goods face tariffs, competitors from other jurisdictions often face steeper barriers. If your Chinese competitors are hit with 25 percent tariffs and you are at 10 percent, you have gained a relative market advantage, even if your absolute costs have risen.”
The Green Paradox: Federal Retreat vs. State Reality
A critical area of misunderstanding lies in the green transition. There is a perception that a potential US withdrawal from international climate accords or a shift in federal administration signals the end of green investment. Månsson argues this is a dangerous misconception.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has fundamentally altered the US energy landscape, creating tax incentives that are difficult to repeal. Furthermore, market forces are aligning with policy. The explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence has created an insatiable demand for data centre capacity, which in turn requires massive, reliable, and cheap energy.
“Even in conservative strongholds like Texas, companies are investing heavily in wind and solar,” Månsson explained. “It is no longer just about ideology; it is about CAPEX and OPEX. Renewable energy is often the fastest and cheapest form of power to deploy. For Swedish cleantech firms, the opportunity lies in efficiency. If you can reduce a data centre’s cooling energy costs by a few percent, the value proposition is enormous.”
Strategic Analysis: The Cost of Inaction
For Nordic executives, the current environment presents a “barbell” risk. On one end, industrial giants and AI-focused firms are doubling down on US presence. On the other, smaller SMEs are withdrawing, citing bureaucratic burdens and compliance costs.
Business Sweden’s analysis suggests this divergence could create long-term vulnerabilities for the smaller players.
1. Market Share is Sticky: In a protectionist environment, local presence is currency. If a Swedish company withdraws, competitors (domestic US firms or those from nations with better localisation strategies) will fill the void. Regaining that shelf space or supply chain slot later will be exponentially more expensive.
2. The California Benchmark: To understand the scale, executives must view the US not as a monolith but as a continent. “California’s GDP is as large as all of India,” Månsson reminded the audience. Ignoring the US market is akin to ignoring the entire Asian growth story.
3. Localisation over Export: The era of simply shipping goods from Sweden to the US is facing headwinds. The future belongs to companies that can localise assembly, R&D, or final configuration within US borders to mitigate tariff exposure and qualify for federal tax credits.
The Verdict
The storm surrounding US politics will continue. Tariffs may fluctuate, but the underlying drive for economic sovereignty in Washington is permanent. For the Nordic business community, the strategy must shift from exporting to the US to operating in the US.
As Månsson concluded, “If you have a significant market share, do not let go. If you are passive, your competitors will act. And in this market, it is very difficult to get back to the same position once you leave.”
Editor’s Note: Where Do We Go From Here?
Follow-Up Direction:
In our next issue, we plan to deep-dive into “Localisation Strategies for Nordic SMEs.” We will analyse specific case studies of Swedish mid-cap companies that successfully navigated the Inflation Reduction Act and state-level incentives to establish US manufacturing footholds without breaking the bank.
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