Stockholm, August 20, 2024 — Despite ongoing global instability and the recent U.S. tariff announcements under former President Donald Trump, Sweden’s Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (Moderate Party) remains cautiously optimistic about the country’s economic outlook. In a new government forecast presented this week, officials project a gradual recovery beginning in late 2024 and gaining momentum through 2025.
“Tariffs are harmful to global trade, but at least we now have a clearer picture of the situation,” Svantesson said during a press conference. “That clarity helps reduce uncertainty — and that’s crucial for businesses and households alike.”
The updated forecast shows improved expectations for growth: Sweden’s GDP is now projected to expand by 3% in 2025, up from the 2.6% predicted in June. Unemployment is expected to decline from 8.7% this year to 8.3% next year — a slight improvement over the previous forecast of 8.4% for 2026.
Still, challenges remain. The Riksbank highlighted persistent economic caution in its latest monetary policy decision, choosing to hold the key interest rate steady. In its statement, the central bank noted that “households remain hesitant to spend, and the labour market has yet to show clear signs of recovery.”
Svantesson acknowledged the difficulties, particularly for Swedish families who have faced several consecutive years of high inflation, rising interest rates, and economic anxiety. “People have been pessimistic — and with good reason,” she said. “But I’m starting to see signs of renewed confidence. The mood is slowly shifting.”
While the government anticipates a turnaround, some experts urge caution. SVT’s economic commentator Alexander Norén pointed out the recurring nature of such forecasts: “Every quarter for the past year — or even longer — we’ve been told the recovery is just around the corner. I’ll believe it when I see it.”
To help accelerate the rebound, Svantesson emphasized that the upcoming government budget, to be presented on September 22, will be deliberately expansionary. It aims to stimulate demand, support households, and reignite economic activity.
“This will not be a conservative, austerity-driven budget,” she stressed. “That would be exactly the wrong medicine at this time. We need to invest wisely, boost purchasing power, and give people the confidence to spend again.”
Discussions among the Tidö coalition partners — the Moderate Party, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats — are ongoing to determine the specific investments and reforms. A preliminary outline of the fiscal framework and reform possibilities will be released on August 28.
Svantesson underscored the importance of proactive policy in uncertain times: “Our goal is clear: to lay the groundwork for sustainable growth, strengthen household resilience, and ensure Sweden emerges from this prolonged downturn stronger and more secure.”
As global headwinds persist, the coming months will be critical in determining whether Sweden’s anticipated economic upswing becomes a reality — or remains just another forecast.