“One long shot.” That’s how Carlsberg Group CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen sums up the reality of leading a multinational in 2026.
In an interview with Deadline, Aarup-Andersen described today’s business climate as a “geopolitical Game of Thrones” — a landscape of shifting alliances, brutal power struggles, and unpredictable shocks. “The geopolitical tectonic plates are moving,” he said. “This creates an uncertainty that means that I, as a business leader, must be prepared to wake up every single day and my playing field has changed.”
The metaphor isn’t just colourful. It’s operational. For Nordic executives, the post-2022 era has replaced 30 years of globalisation tailwinds with sanctions regimes, supply chain weaponisation, and consumer boycotts. The question Aarup-Andersen is grappling with: Can you navigate the throne room without becoming part of the fight?
Carlsberg’s 750 Million Krone Bet on Ukraine
Unrest or not, Carlsberg is doubling down. The brewer has committed to significant expansion in war-torn Ukraine, including a new canning line at its Kyiv brewery that lifts capacity by 80%. The move is part of a broader DKr500m ($73.4m) capex plan across 2023-2024, with follow-on investment slated for sales equipment, draft systems, and technical staff.
The calculus is twofold. First, market logic: Ukraine is now Carlsberg’s biggest business in Central and Eastern Europe. Volumes recovered more than 50% in early 2023 after breweries in Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv and Lviv gradually resumed operations, though they remained ~15% below pre-war levels. Second, values logic: “It shows the commitment to Ukraine and the importance Ukraine holds for the business,” Aarup-Andersen noted. With 1,350 employees and an estimated 20,000 jobs supported in related industries, Carlsberg is one of Ukraine’s top 25 taxpayers.
That bet contrasts sharply with Carlsberg’s exit from Russia. After announcing a full disposal in 2022, the Group later described the seizure of Baltika Breweries by the Russian government as having “stolen our business”. The geopolitical line between “doing the right thing” and “doing business” is now drawn in balance sheets.
2026 Update: Where Carlsberg Stands Now
Three years into the war, the Ukraine gamble looks like strategic patience rather than charity. In Carlsberg’s H1 2025 conference call, management flagged that “Ukraine remains uncertain due to the war”, but the Group still upgraded 2025 operating profit guidance to 3-5% organic growth. Cost control and Britvic synergies helped offset volume headwinds, with the Britvic acquisition in 2025 bolstering reported revenue growth 18.8%.
The broader lesson for Nordic boardrooms: “Long shots” require financial shock absorbers. Carlsberg lowered 2025 CapEx expectations to DKK 7bn and is reviewing a potential IPO of its Indian operations — which could raise DKK 5bn and reduce debt — to keep flexibility amid what it calls “tough 2026” conditions from U.S. tariffs and the Ukraine war.
Analysis: Three Takeaways for Nordic Business Leaders
1. Risk is now a portfolio, not a footnote. Carlsberg’s Ukraine capex sits alongside Britvic M&A and a potential India IPO. Diversification isn’t just geographic — it’s between growth bets and balance-sheet defence. CEOs who treat geopolitical risk as a CFO-level variable, not a CSR slide, are outperforming.
2. “Value chains” are becoming “values chains.” Consumers and governments now audit where you operate, not just how. Carlsberg’s decision to invest in Ukraine while exiting Russia is a case study in aligning commercial logic with stakeholder expectations. Expect more Nordic firms to publish “geopolitical exposure” in annual reports by 2027.
3. Volatility premiums are real. Ukraine’s operating result was reported at DKK 0 until “a consistent level of operations is resumed”, with war-related losses booked to special items. The accounting mirrors the strategy: ring-fence the downside, but keep optionality on the upside.
Meanwhile, on the CPH Exchange: Novo’s Pill Problem
Geopolitics isn’t the only volatility Nordic investors are pricing. Novo Nordisk shares opened up 7% on quarterly results before closing +2.5%. The trigger: sales of its new Wegovy pill, launched in January.
But as Jyske Bank’s Martin Munk cautions, “You have to remember that it’s early in the process”. Eli Lilly only launched its competing drug after Q1 ended in April. The euphoria gap between open and close is a reminder: In pharma’s Game of Thrones, first-mover advantage is measured in months, not years. For Nordic portfolios overweight Novo, the next catalysts are U.S. prescription data and Lilly’s pricing moves — not just Danish headlines.
The Bottom Line for Readers
Aarup-Andersen’s “long shot” is really a framework: Invest where you have conviction, hedge where you have exposure, and communicate both. The old playbook of stable, rules-based trade is gone. The new one is about dynamic repositioning — sometimes in active war zones.
As one Copenhagen-based fund manager put it this week: “We used to ask CEOs about TAM. Now we ask about tanks.”
What’s Next & How to Connect
Next month in Nordic Business Journal: We dive into “The India Option” — how Carlsberg, Ørsted, and Vestas are using IPOs, JVs, and supply chain shifts to de-risk China exposure without abandoning Asian growth. We’ll analyse the capital, political, and talent math behind the subcontinent pivot.
Join the conversation: How is your company adapting to the “geopolitical Game of Thrones”? Share your board’s scenario planning framework or your biggest blind spot. Email the editors at editorial@nordicbusinessjournal.com or connect with us on LinkedIn at Nordic Business Journal. For CEO roundtables and early access to our Q2 Risk Index, subscribe at nordicbusinessjournal.com/join.