Nordic Market Wrap – Thursday & Friday, 24–25 July 2025
How trading closed on every Nordic marketplace
- Stockholm: The OMX Stockholm 30 finished Friday at 2 606, +0.23 % on the day and +1.3 % for the two-day window. Heavyweight Hexagon AB was halted for 20 min Thursday morning after a fat-finger error, but closed both sessions in the green.
- Helsinki: OMX Helsinki 25 ended Friday at 4 295, +0.5 %, lifted by Nokia’s 1.7 % rebound on the back of strong optical-network orders from India.
- Copenhagen: OMX Copenhagen 25 closed Friday at 1 892, +1.1 %. The index was the region’s star performer thanks entirely to Bavarian Nordic A/S, which gapped up 18 % Thursday and added another 5 % Friday.
- Oslo: The OBX Index closed Friday at 1 031, –0.2 %. Energy names lagged after Brent crude slipped below USD 78.
- Reykjavík: The OMX Iceland All-Share closed at 3 141 Friday, +0.4 %, led by Marel hf. following an upbeat Q2 pre-release.
Biggest winners and losers, and what drove them
- Winners
- Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.CO) – the vaccine maker confirmed late Thursday that Nordic Capital and Permira have made a non-binding indicative offer at DKK 285 per share (≈ 20 % premium). Management said they are “in dialogue,” prompting short-covering and fresh long-only buying.
- Hexagon AB (HEXA-B.ST) – the measurement-technology group rose 4.4 % over the two days after announcing a USD 300 m share buy-back and guiding FY-25 EBIT margin to the upper end of the 24–26 % range on strong demand from U.S. aerospace customers.
- Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS.CO) – gained 3.8 % on news that the U.S. and the EU are close to a 15 % tariff ceiling instead of the threatened 30 %, reducing the risk of retaliatory duties on European turbines.
- Losers
- Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL) – fell 2.9 % as oil prices slid and the Norwegian government reiterated that it may raise the special petroleum tax from 55 % to 60 % in the 2026 budget proposal.
- Nordea Bank Abp (NDA-FI.HE) – down 2.1 % after the ECB’s dovish tone flattened the yield curve, compressing NII expectations for the coming quarters.
General news flow during the two-day window
- Trump tariff watch – Multiple Nordic brokers cited the Financial Times/Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration and the EU have “substantially narrowed differences” and that a 15 % tariff deal could be signed before the 1 August deadline. The news removed a key overhang for export-heavy indices, pushing the OMX Nordic 40 up 0.4 % Thursday and another 0.6 % Friday.
- Swedish krona – The SEK firmed 0.4 % vs. the euro after the Riksbank’s July minutes (published Friday) showed two board members dissenting in favour of a 25 bp hike, hinting at a more hawkish bias if services inflation persists.
- Nokia India contract – Worth USD 1.1 bn over three years, the deal boosted sentiment across the Nordic telecom complex and was flagged by Nordea as a “positive read-across” for Ericsson.
Looking ahead to Monday 28 July
- Bavarian Nordic remains in a trading halt from 08:00–09:00 Monday for management to host an investor call on the takeover approach. Implied volatility on the name is 140 % (up from 45 %), pointing to an ±8 % move on the open.
- Macro calendar – EU Q2 GDP flash (Friday) and the Fed’s July meeting (Wednesday) will dominate. Nordic strategists at SEB expect “range-bound but positive” price action as markets price out tail-risk from a 30 % U.S.–EU tariff scenario.
- Flows – Asset managers report net inflows of EUR 350 m into Nordic equity ETFs during the two-day period, the largest weekly inflow since March. Consensus positioning remains OW Sweden and UW Norway, with risk-tilt to exporters and green-energy names.
Bottom line: A M&A spark in Copenhagen and easing tariff fears propelled Nordic equities to their best two-day run in eight weeks. Unless the Bavarian Nordic deal collapses or the Fed shocks markets, the regional bias stays constructive into month-end.