Executive Summary: Swedish public confidence in NATO has declined 10 percentage points year-on-year to 47%, according to the Swedish Media Academy’s 2026 Confidence Barometer. While geopolitical uncertainty drives this shift, domestic institutions—including the Armed Forces (69%), Police (75%), and even the Royal House (53%, a record high)—are gaining trust. For Nordic executives, this divergence signals critical implications for risk assessment, supply chain strategy, and investment in the region’s rapidly expanding defence-industrial ecosystem.
The Data: Trust Shifts in a Volatile Geopolitical Landscape
The 2026 survey of 2,500 Swedes (conducted by Verian, January 19–February 2) reveals a nuanced picture of institutional credibility:
| Institution | 2026 Trust | 2025 Trust | Change |
| Police | 75% | 74% | +1pp |
| Universities/Colleges | 74% | 73% | +1pp |
| Healthcare | 72% | 71% | +1pp |
| Armed Forces | 69% | 66% | +3pp |
| Riksbank | 64% | 49% | +15pp |
| Royal House | 53% | 48% | +5pp |
| NATO | 47% | 57% | –10pp |
| EU Commission | 38% | 41% | –3pp |
Source: Swedish Media Academy Confidence Barometer 2026
Notably, trust in NATO has only been measured for two years, limiting longitudinal analysis—but the sharp decline coincides with heightened transatlantic tensions and uncertainty around U.S. political leadership. Björn Rönnstrand of the Swedish Media Academy notes: “When two NATO countries find themselves in conflict over Greenland, NATO has suffered a blow that has certainly affected the results.”
Business Analysis: What Declining NATO Trust Means for Nordic Executives
1. Geopolitical Risk Premium Is Rising
While NATO remains the cornerstone of European collective defence, eroding public confidence introduces a new variable for corporate risk modelling. Companies with exposure to cross-border logistics, energy infrastructure, or dual-use technologies should:
- Reassess scenario planning for supply chain disruption in Baltic and Arctic corridors
- Factor in potential delays in NATO-coordinated procurement or intelligence sharing
- Monitor shifts in national defence budgets that may prioritise domestic resilience over alliance integration
2. Domestic Institutions Offer Strategic Anchors
The surge in trust for the Armed Forces, Police, and Royal House reflects a public preference for predictable, nationally rooted institutions. For business leaders, this suggests:
- Public-private partnerships with Swedish defence authorities (e.g., FMV) may enjoy stronger social licence and faster regulatory pathways
- Brand alignment with trusted domestic entities can enhance corporate reputation during periods of geopolitical volatility
- Workforce stability: High trust in national institutions correlates with lower social unrest risk—a key consideration for long-term capital allocation
3. Defence Industry Momentum Continues Regardless of Sentiment
Public opinion does not dictate procurement. Nordic defence spending is accelerating:
- Total Nordic defence expenditure reached €38.4 billion in 2023, with Sweden contributing 42%
- Sweden’s defence exports grew 15% to SEK 19.8 billion (USD 2.1 billion) in 2022, led by Saab’s Gripen and surveillance systems
- Norway assumes leadership of NORDEFCO in 2026, prioritising joint training and Total Defence integration
Strategic implication: The Nordic defence-industrial base is scaling independently of short-term polling. Executives should track order backlogs (now €25.6 billion regionally) and R&D collaboration frameworks—not just sentiment metrics.
4. The “Royal House Effect”: Symbolic Stability in Uncertain Times
The Royal House’s record 53% trust rating—surpassing Parliament and Government—underscores a public appetite for non-partisan, continuity-oriented institutions. For multinationals:
- Ceremonial engagements with the Royal Court can signal long-term commitment to Sweden
- ESG narratives emphasizing heritage, sustainability, and institutional stewardship may resonate more strongly with Nordic stakeholders
Forward-Looking Indicators for Q2–Q4 2026
| Indicator | Why It Matters | Monitoring Source |
| Swedish defence budget allocation (Spring 2026) | Signals prioritisation of domestic vs. alliance capabilities | FMV, Ministry of Defence |
| NORDEFCO work plan under Norwegian chairmanship | Reveals scope for Nordic industrial collaboration | NORDEFCO Secretariat |
| U.S.–EU defence technology transfer agreements | Impacts Nordic firms’ access to critical IP | European Commission, U.S. DSCA |
| Public trust in “Total Defence” concept | Gauges societal readiness for hybrid threats | Swedish Media Academy, FOI |
Methodology Note
The Confidence Barometer measures public trust across 18+ institution categories via weighted web interviews (ages 16–84). Margin of error: ±2.1 percentage points. Full dataset and cross-tabulations available via the Swedish Media Academy.
What to Read Next & Connect With Us
Follow-up article direction: In our next issue, we will analyse how Nordic defence primes (Saab, Kongsberg, Patria) are navigating export controls, supply chain sovereignty, and dual-use innovation in an era of strategic competition. We’ll feature exclusive interviews with C-suite leaders on scaling production while maintaining ethical governance.
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